Volume 10, Number 3 (fall 2006)                   JCPP 2006, 10(3): 45-58 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

A. Fatehi Marj, A. Borhani Darian, M. H. Mahdian. Forecasting Seasonal Rainfall Using Teleconnection Pattern Case Study: Orumiyeh Lake Basin. JCPP. 2006; 10 (3) :45-58
URL: http://jcpp.iut.ac.ir/article-1-565-en.html

Abstract:   (24294 Views)
Orumiyeh Lake basin is one of the important regions in Iran from water resources and environment standpoints. In this basin, substantial part of the annual precipitation occurrs in spring, winter, and fall seasons. Due to semi-arid climate of the basin, rainfall forecasting is an important issue for proper water resources planning and management, particularly in drought years. On the other hand, investigations around the world show that there is a good conection between climatic signals and the amount of precipitation. In this paper, the relationship between climatic signals and seasonal rainfall was investigated in Orumiyeh Lake basin. For this purpose, monthly SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) was calculated and used along with six climatic signals including SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North America), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), NINO3.4 and, NOI (North Oscillation Index). A new method employing the negative and positive phases of signals was proposed and tested to distinguish the relationship between the climatic signals and the individual stations rainfall in the basin. Furthermore, it was found that using joint signals substantially improves the precision of the forcast rainfalls. The results showed that fall and winter rainfalls had the highest correlatetions with SOI and NAO, respectively. Therefore, it would be possible to forecast the basin rainfall using climatic signals of the previous seasons.
Full-Text [PDF 411 kb]   (1078 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General

Add your comments about this article : Your username or email:
Write the security code in the box

© 2015 All Rights Reserved | Isfahan University of Technology - Journal of Crop Production and Processing

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb